A day after Ukraine's audacious large-scale drone attacks on multiple Russian air bases, negotiators from Moscow and Kyiv are meeting on Monday in the Turkish city of Istanbul for their second round of direct peace talks. The two warring sides were already far apart on how to end the conflict, but in the aftermath of what appears to be a spectacularly successful Ukrainian mission, it appears even less likely that either side will budge from their red lines.
The talks are taking place at the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul, an Ottoman imperial house on the banks of the Bosphorus that is now a luxury five-star hotel. Leading the Russian delegation will be Vladimir Medinsky, an ideological Putin aide who has written school textbooks justifying Russia's invasion and has questioned Ukraine's right to exist as a nation. He's the one who led failed talks in 2022.
Ukraine's team will be led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, a pragmatic negotiator mired in a domestic scandal over alleged abuse of power and a lack of transparency.
The idea of direct talks was first proposed by President Vladimir Putin after Ukraine and European powers demanded that he agree to a ceasefire, which the Kremlin dismissed. The first round of talks on May 16 yielded the biggest prisoner swap of the war, but no sign of peace - or even a ceasefire, as both sides merely set out their own opening negotiating positions.
Russia's Stance So Far
Even before the Ukrainian drone strike deep into Russia, proving its prowess, the Kremlin set out its opening terms for an immediate end to the war-- Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four Ukrainian regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia. Russia currently controls a little under one-fifth of Ukraine, or about 113,100 square km, about the same size as the US state of Ohio.
Putin has also asked for immediate sanctions relief to secure the fate of hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets abroad and what the Kremlin calls "de-Nazification", involving things like guaranteeing the rights of Russian-speakers.
Ukraine's Stance
After keeping the world guessing on whether Ukraine would even turn up for the second round, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday said Defence Minister Rustem Umerov would meet with Russian officials in Istanbul. Kyiv is going into this second round of talks bolstered by its apparent success under operation "Spider's web", which destroyed at least 40 Russian bombers, thousands of kilometres inside the Russian frontlines.
On Sunday, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia. But Moscow's demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory it claims remain unpalatable for Kyiv.
Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul are set to present to the Russian side a proposed roadmap for reaching a lasting peace settlement, according to a Reuters report. The terms will include-- no restrictions on Ukraine's military strength after a peace deal is struck, no international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine taken by Moscow's forces, and reparations for Ukraine.
They will also state that the current location of the front line will be the starting point for negotiations about territory.
The US Factor
With Russia and Ukraine refusing to blink, an increasingly frustrated US President Donald Trump, who has bragged about ending the war in short order, is forced to watch from the sidelines. Neither his recent sanction threat to the Russian ruler nor his scoring of the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office seems to push the two sides any closer to a peace deal.
Trump has demanded that Russia and Ukraine make peace, with a warning that the United States will "walk away" from the war if the two sides are too stubborn to reach a peace deal. He has insisted that it was Biden's war.
But now, walking away unscathed may not be an option as a cornerstone of his stated foreign policy to be "negotiator in chief" looks decidedly shaky.
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