Why India Will Be Watching the Developments in Myanmar's Rakhine State

Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami has proposed the creation of an independent Rohingya state in a meeting with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) representatives in Dhaka. The delegation was led by Peng Jiubin, the Director-General of the Southeast and South Asian Affairs Bureau under the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee. This comes amidst a surge of Rohingyas into Bangladesh as  Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) seize power along Myanmar's international borders, especially the Arakan Army, an EAO operating in the Rakhine State of Myanmar.

"China can play the biggest role here because China has a great relationship with Burma," said Jamaat leader Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher. This carries significant geopolitical implications for India, which will be watching these developments very closely. "In the address I delivered to journalists after our meeting with the visiting Chinese Communist Party on April 27, I raised the need to make arrangements for the dignified and safe return of the Rohingyas who had come to Bangladesh, and also for establishing a safe zone for them," Taher added in a statement.

Bangladesh's interim government Foreign Adviser, Md Touhid Hossain, warned that the prolonged Rohingya crisis poses an escalating threat to both Bangladesh and regional stability, urging stronger international action for a durable and lasting solution, according to the Bangladesh Sangbad Sanstha.

"We've not yet found a viable solution to this crisis, despite it burdening us for a very long time," he said during a seminar on the issue, describing the prospects for Rohingya repatriation as grim due to Myanmar's internal instability.

Since 2017, one million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh from the conflict-ridden Rakhine state in Myanmar. Today, Bangladesh hosts more than 1.3 million Rohingyas in camps at Cox's Bazar. The past few years have seen more and more Rohingya Muslims escape to Bangladesh as a result of violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State as Myanmar's rebel group, the Arakan Army (AA), the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA), continues to take over areas along the border seeking greater autonomy for the Rakhine people in Rakhine state and ultimately aims to restore the sovereignty of the Arakanese people. The AA wants to govern Rakhine State with a degree of independence from the central Myanmar government. 

The alliance consists of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), and collectively these groups have seized military bases and towns since launching Operation 1027 in late October 2024.

In the past few months, the AA has gained control of more than 80 per cent area with the military junta scrambling to retain control, according to experts who are familiar with the developments in the region. The fighting has resulted in a spike in the movement of Rohingya muslims to Bangladesh. If China supports the proposal and intervenes, and the Jamaat-E-Islami has its way, that will mean a completely new geopolitical challenge for India. But experts say the idea of an independent Rohingya state is highly unlikely.

"An independent Rohingya state remains highly improbable in the current geopolitical and military climate. While the Myanmar military is increasingly losing ground in Rakhine to the Arakan Army, neither the junta nor the AA has shown any intention of supporting an independent Rohingya entity," said Sreeparna Banerjee, Associate Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme of the Observer Research Foundation, in an interview with NDTV. "The AA, despite its military successes, has historically remained ambiguous-or even exclusionary-towards Rohingya political aspirations. Moreover, regional powers and ASEAN have not indicated any support for such a drastic redrawing of borders, which would set a volatile precedent in the region."

Banerjee elaborated that the AA's vision is centred on ethnic Rakhine autonomy, not a separate state for the Rohingyas or any other group. "The AA's territorial gains are significant, but its focus remains on Rakhine autonomy within a federal or confederal structure. In fact, the AA has sought to assert control over Rohingya-majority areas like Buthidaung and Maungdaw. There are also increasing reports of forced conscription and restrictions imposed on Rohingyas by AA forces. Therefore, even if a power vacuum were to emerge, it is more likely to lead to Rakhine-centric governance than to a distinct Rohingya state. The feasibility is thus low and highly improbable," she said.

The Jamaat-e-Islami, a radical Islamist group that has often taken an anti-India stance in Bangladesh, is also trying to bring China into the equation. While the Bangladesh Interim Government has invited China to expand its presence in the region, India has primarily focused on northern Bangladesh and the strategic Siliguri Corridor, or "Chicken's Neck." However, Myanmar-which shares a border with southern Bangladesh-could prove to be a strategic alternative for India, helping secure its northeastern front and providing another route into the region. Both India and China already maintain a presence in Rakhine State: India through the Sittwe Port under the Kaladan project, and China through the Kyaukphyu Port and associated oil and gas pipelines.

Despite its regional interests, China is unlikely to support an independent Rohingya state due to the potential instability such a development could bring. "China's primary interest in Rakhine is strategic stability and protection of its infrastructure-especially the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), including the Kyaukphyu Port and the oil/gas pipelines. An independent Rohingya state would inject tremendous uncertainty into China's investments. However, if such a proposal emerged as a stabilising force, China might pragmatically engage with it-particularly if it meant buffer control around its assets. But overall, Beijing is more likely to support actors like the AA or the junta, who can secure its assets without radically altering territorial arrangements," Banerjee noted.

For India, the Sittwe Port holds critical importance. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), India's flagship connectivity initiative in Myanmar, aims to enhance road and maritime links with Southeast Asia. It will also provide an alternative access route to India's northeastern region, contributing to economic development there. The project connects Sittwe Port in Myanmar to the India-Myanmar border via a 225-kilometre waterway to Kaletwa and a 62-kilometre roadway from Kaletwa to the border.

The first Indian cargo ship arrived at Sittwe Port on May 9, 2023, marking the beginning of regular maritime trade between Kolkata's Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port and Sittwe in Myanmar's Rakhine State. The port connects to Paletwa via an inland waterway and from Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram via road, bypassing Bangladesh entirely. The construction includes a 280-meter bridge over the Kaladan River at Kaletwa, as part of the 60.8-kilometre route to Zorinpui.

"India's investment in the Sittwe Port and the Kaladan Project is anchored in its broader objective of ensuring security and connectivity in the northeast. However, the current situation in Rakhine-marked by escalating conflict between the Arakan Army and the junta-has rendered the region inhospitable to infrastructure continuity in the near term. Any proposal for an independent Rohingya state would likely exacerbate instability further, complicating India's strategic logistics corridor to Mizoram and Manipur," Banerjee explained.

India will be watching the situation along its border with Myanmar closely, as these projects are vital to its security and economic interests in the Northeast. With Bangladesh engaging with Pakistan and inviting China to increase its influence in the region, any move toward establishing an independent Rohingya state could prove a significant roadblock. Sources suggest that India may need to open communication lines and establish working relationships with whichever power ends up controlling Rakhine State.