Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Iran-Israel Escalation

Oil prices risk rocketing further should crude supplies become disrupted from a widening Middle East conflict after Israel struck military and nuclear facilities in Iran, analysts said Friday.

Below, AFP examines where the oil market could go next.

 How big is oil's rise? 

Crude prices soared more than 13 percent at one point on Friday following the overnight attacks -- reaching the highest levels since January. 

They later pulled back but were still up by around eight percent around 1300 GMT, with international benchmark Brent North Sea crude at nearly $75 per barrel.

The sharp gains -- the main US oil contract WTI was up by a similar amount -- can be explained by a risk premium priced into the market.

"This premium has surged around $8 per barrel -- higher than the level seen in April and October 2024, when Iran and Israel exchanged direct strikes for the first time in history," noted Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy.

Fresh price surge? 

Price gains are being capped by news that there has been no immediate reduction to crude production or supplies, after Israel's strikes appeared to have avoided Iranian oil facilities.

This could quickly change, however, after Iran called Israel's action a declaration of war. 

An escalating conflict, resulting in supply disruptions, would almost certainly see prices rise further according to analysts.

Iran is the world's ninth biggest oil-producing country, with output of about 3.3 million barrels per day.

It exports just under half the amount and keeps the rest for domestic consumption. 

"If Iran's oil production/export facilities were to be targeted, Brent crude could plausibly jump to around $80-100 per barrel," wrote analysts at Capital Economics research group.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, at Global Risk Management, said "for the oil market, the absolute nightmare is a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes. 

"If Iran blocks this narrow chokepoint, it could affect up to 20 percent of global oil flows."

Leon estimated that disruption to the Strait could add as much as $20 to the price of an oil barrel.

 US Role On Prices? 

There are concerns that the United States could hit Iran with economic sanctions should it not reach a deal with Washington over the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions.

Sanctions risk tightening oil supplies and likely contribute to prices rising, according to experts.

However, Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said Iranian oil exports could fall by only 0.5-1.0 million barrels per day in the wake of sanctions. 

This is because "China continues to import Iranian oil", he told AFP.

 Winners and Losers? 

Falling Iranian output could see Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ producing more of their own oil, in turn boosting revenues.

Since April, the cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has already added significant oil volumes to the market, which weighed on prices prior to Friday's surge.

Crude futures had for a while traded around $65, hit also by US President Donald Trump's tariffs blitz, which risks weighing on global economic growth.

Should prices remain around $75, producers capable of increasing output will have every incentive to do so.

At the same time, more expensive crude will push up inflation, hitting many businesses and consumers.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)