AI For Nuclear Launch Decision Is "True Doomsday Scenario": Study

Using artificial intelligence (AI) to manage nuclear weapon systems poses a catastrophic risk for humanity, the world's top institute on conflict research, SIPRI, has said in its 2025 yearbook.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) cautioned that an automated nuclear weapon launch decision system will lead to a full control of nuclear arsenals by AI, putting humanity at great risk.

"We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics," SIPRI Director Dan Smith said in the yearbook's introduction, warning about the challenges facing nuclear arms control and the prospects of a new nuclear arms race.

"If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we'd be approaching true doomsday scenarios," he said.

Nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed nations - the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel - continued intensive nuclear modernisation programmes in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions, the SIPRI report said.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use.

An estimated 3,912 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft and the rest were in central storage.

Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but China may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime, SIPRI said.

Russia and the US together possess around 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons, the report said.

SIPRI estimates that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads. China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023. By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east.

Pakistan also continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2024, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade.

North Korea continues to prioritise its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 50 warheads, possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more warheads and is accelerating the production of further fissile material.