Uttar Pradesh Elections 2017: Ajit Singh Hangs His Comeback Hopes On Jats Dumping BJP Tomorrow

Muzzafarnagar, Uttar Pradesh: About 10 km before you enter Muzzafarnagar town in western Uttar Pradesh, a massive security barricade is manned by many paramilitary personnel in olive green fatigues and holding automatic weapons. In this sugar belt of UP, the extra security deployed by the Election Commission is a reminder of the 2013 clashes between Jats and Muslims that claimed over 60 lives. Months later, the Jats of western UP, once the core support base of Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal, voted en masse for the BJP in a polarised national election of 2014. The BJP took all the seats in the region.

Ajit Singh and his son, Jayant Chaudhary, are trying to regain lost ground in what is seen as their fight to stay relevant when the region votes on Saturday in the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. In 2012, Ajit Singh's party had won all its nine seats in western UP, the number shrinking in comparison to earlier elections.

The RLD's pitch this time is simple. It says the BJP has not kept the promises it made to the Jats in 2014 - its government at the Centre has not given them reservation in government jobs, the hike in procurement prices for sugarcane farmers isn't substantial and it has done little to ensure that sugar mill owners pay arrears to farmers.

"Lok Dal people are straightforward and not like others who lie," Jayant Chaudhary told a gathering of RLD supporters and urged them to take his message to every village in the area. "The RLD is the only party that can bridge the divide between communities," he added as he wrapped up and flew away in a helicopter for his next public meeting in Mathura.
 Ajit Rathee, who heads the RLD in Muzzafarnagar, said, "The main issue here is that of farmers. Neither the Centre nor the state government has given anything to them. That's why our supporters, our Jat brothers have come back to our party."

The BJP knows it will find it difficult to repeat its 2014 sweep of the region if the Jats abandon it. BJP candidates are stoutly countering the RLD, claiming their leaders are doing their best to get farmers their due.

Vijay Kashyap, a non-Jat BJP candidate in the Charthawal constituency of Muzzafarnagar talks about how union minister Sanjeev Baliyan, a parliamentarian from the region, ensured that sugar mills paid arrears to sugarcane growers. "There was a payment problem with the sugar mills were but Balyan ensured that we got farmers our money," said Mr Kashyap.
 At a village gathering next to the Titavi sugar mill, opinion was clearly divided. The older Jats here were angry that the BJP has not honoured its commitments; they also talked nostalgically about Ajit Singh's father and former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, still considered the tallest Jat leader in these parts. The younger ones said there was still time for the ruling party to come good on its promises.

UP votes in seven phases starting Saturday, when polling will be held for 73 of 403 seats in the state. Unlike the rest of the state, where most seats will see tight contests between the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, the BJP and Mayawati's BSP, in the sugarcane belt of western UP, the RLD will make it a four-cornered fight.

Votes will be counted on March 11.