Opinion | Protests, Pakistan, And A Yunus-Army Showdown: Why Bangladesh Is On Edge

There are few leaders, non-elected or otherwise, who have a reputation as strange as Muhammad Yunus's, the Chief Advisor to the Bangladesh government. It's not just that he doesn't want to leave his comfortable perch as an unelected leader; that's no surprise in much of Asia, where politicians like to hang on by their teeth. It's that he's been playing with fire, slowly pushing his country towards grave danger. Bangladesh deserves better.

Public (Dis)order

First, public order has never been restored since the violence that preceded Yunus being 'air-dropped' into the country. As the police continue to remain 'in absentia', protest after protest is disrupting normal life. Recently, government employees at the Bangladesh Secretariat, essentially the heart of bureaucracy, took out protests against the proposed Government Service (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025, which will allow their dismissal within 14 days for rather vague offences, including 'inciting disobedience or disrupting discipline' or encouraging others to skip work or avoid responsibilities. In sum, it's meant to prevent thousands of disgruntled employees from participating in protests of any kind. Another set of protests was by employees of the Board of Revenue, who opposed splitting the organisation into two. A third is by teachers demanding changes in salary. 

All these proposed laws were cleared by the entirely unelected government under Yunus, at a time when confidence in him and his 'advisors' has been at its lowest. Indeed, in February, Army Chief Waker-uz-Zaman had - very unusually for him - warned of a serious threat to the country, stating clearly, "The anarchy we have witnessed is manufactured by us".

That Dubious Corridor

But a much worse controversy is in the making. In December 2024, a UN Resolution noted the plight of the Rohingya and suggested a humanitarian corridor for assistance. Bangladesh welcomed the idea. A month prior to this, the interim government had appointed Khalilur Rehman to be the 'High Representative' for all matters concerning the Rohingya.

Rehman has been a resident in the US for many years, with multiple properties there, and with a rather intriguing gap of several years (2016-2023) in his career. Made the National Security Advisor (NSA) in April, he gave rousing support to the corridor, dodging a question on how China would react to it, or the fact that Myanmar would most certainly oppose it. In the event, the idea caused an uproar and was opposed by all major political parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rehman, who said it was better to leave such decisions to an elected government. Even the National Citizens Party (NC), formed by the students, have opposed it, as has the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Clearly, there were no takers for the idea, despite Yunus holding back-to-back meetings with major parties, including 20 others on all sides of the spectrum.

The Army Takes A Stand

The crisis came on May 21, when Gen Zaman in a 'durbar' speech - broadcast to the entire army, including those posted outside - called for elections in December, asking the government to stop interfering in military matters and to keep it 'in the loop' on the corridor. In private, he is reported to have been firmly against it. 

By Gen Zaman's side were the Air Force and Navy chiefs - a strong message against repeated attempts by Yunus to divide the forces. These attempts included Yunus's bid to prop up Lieutenant-General Kamrul Hassan, Principal Staff Officer at the headquarters. Hassan had earlier led a delegation on an extensive tour of Pakistan, where he and the Pakistani Army Chief, Gen. Asim Munir, had jointly declared that the two countries remain "resilient against external influences". Hassan is also the pointsman between the NSA - who, notably, was appointed when the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) was out of the country - and the Arakan Army for supplying logistics. He reportedly also met a US delegation without prior clearance from his chief, and had multiple meetings with the Charge d'Affairs. Hassan, along with the Bangladesh intelligence set-up (the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence), is said to be coordinating over the 'humanitarian corridor'. 

In short, there was little that Yunus did not do to undermine Gen Zaman and steamroller his issues through without consulting with political parties.

The Students And 'Yunus Forever'

Add to all this the apparent intention of the 'students' - two of whom remain in the government as ministers for information and for local government and rural development, both extremely important portfolios in Bangladesh. The two want to finalise the controversial 'July declaration', which nullifies the entire Liberation era and calls for a 'new Republic', among other things. They want to incorporate this into a new Constitution and push reforms that would require Yunus to stay on for an unknown period, and essentially throw out the President and replace the top army echelons. 

In other words, it's a heady call for a bottom-up change, with unknown results. Those demands of the students are Yunus's lifeline since it will take years to implement these 'reforms'.

Other Actors Step In

Meanwhile, a day before the Army Chief announced his intention to address his force, the media noted that the US embassy folks had met with him to convince him about the 'humanitarian corridor'. That attempt clearly failed. 

Earlier, on May 8, a US cargo aircraft had landed in Dhaka, with US Air Force officers as well as military contractors said to be on board. Speculation was rife that the aircraft contained weapons to be routed via the 'corridor'. However, senior military officials have also committed to providing Bangladesh with weapons of all kinds. 

Matters were moving fast on other fronts, too. The government was preparing to hand over the management of the Chattogram Port to a foreign company. Chattogram is vital to Bangladesh's exports, and its handing over was opposed by parties across the board. Bangladesh commentators are seeing a US hand and point to the "Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act " of 2022, which forms the basis for US policy on Myanmar. Apart from diverse commitments, it also makes way for 'non-lethal' assistance to resistance groups or armed organisations. Given how liberally 'non-lethal aid' has been defined in Ukraine to include armoured vehicles and radars, the fears around Dhaka being drawn into a fight with China are real. In any case, China's aggressive posture in Myanmar was apparent when Indian aircraft carrying aid for the earthquake in March found their systems facing electronic interference. 

The army most certainly doesn't want to get involved. Neither does anyone else.

Another Malign Influence

On the side, as it were, the actions of the now-discredited Pakistan High Commissioner, Ayed Ahmed Maroof, who left after he was 'honey-trapped' by a Bangladeshi woman, are also suspect. His frequent visits to Cox's Bazar, his offering jummah with Rohingya leaders at the Kutupalong camp, and a separate meeting with the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in January this year, after which there were reports about the DGFI imparting guerrilla training to them, have raised questions. 

The ARSA, an entirely Muslim outfit - unlike the Arakan army, which is Buddhist - is known for its criminal activities, including extortion and the like. It had even been at war with other groups. There is much more to Pakistani activity, but that's a separate story.

Zaman's Unenviable Job

The point is that an embattled Gen Zaman has much to contend with, courtesy a mischievous 'Chief Advisor' who seems to be trying to ingratiate himself with multiple countries - including China - to extend his stay in office. His most recent accusation against India, of creating a "war-like" situation, proves that when all else fails, conspiracy theories can always be a recourse. 

Nonetheless, the Army chief has managed to win the respect of his people. No less than the Jamaat chief has chided the 'establishment' for the criticism of the army, even if they still want a change in the Constitution. Surprisingly, the Jamaat chief also condemned the ban on the Awami League, indicating the deep relations at the ground level between politicians of different hues. 

While the BNP is rooting for early elections, the 'students' want as much delay as possible, perhaps to buy enough time to strengthen their base in rural areas. Any quick election will mean a virtual rout for the NCP. 

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's top industrialists are sounding the alarm over a power and gas crisis, warning that factories are lying idle and that their "backs have been against the wall". Closure of industries will only add to the unemployment crisis and fuel social unrest. 

Not A Pakistan Story

Sadly, it seems the army is being forced, step by step, to intervene in a crisis it would rather not be sucked into. Unlike Pakistan's 'Field Marshal', Gen. Zaman has a good head on his shoulders to know that such intervention does not do any good to disciplined armies. Only, there seems to be little choice, with the light at the end of the tunnel being free, fair and inclusive elections. After that, the army must ideally step back into its barracks. It's a tough call, and Zaman now has the most unenviable job in the world. 

Delhi had better stand by for trouble and provide quiet assistance aimed at kindling 'appreciation' among the Bangladeshi people, rather than demanding 'gratitude' for the 1971 Liberation. Best not to overplay the latter at the moment. Foreign policy is run not on past victories, but present realities.

(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author